After an in-depth interview with Dr. Adib Enayati, the esteemed director of the Genesys Defense Special Intelligence and Warfare Studies Unit (GDSIWSU), we were provided with a detailed and insightful analysis of the recent advancements made by Syrian rebel factions. His expertise sheds light on the strategic maneuvers, territorial gains, and implications of these developments within the broader context of Syria’s complex and evolving conflict. The following report outlines key findings and observations shared during our discussion.

Introduction to Syrian Rebel Factions

Syria’s ongoing conflict, now spanning more than a decade, involves multiple rebel factions, each driven by varied ideological, political, and territorial ambitions. Among the most notable is the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed coalition active in northern Syria. While purportedly united, the SNA consists of disparate factions often accused of human rights abuses, including forced displacement and arbitrary detentions. Another key group is the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by Kurdish militias such as the YPG and supported by the United States. The SDF operates in northeastern Syria, focusing on countering ISIS while maintaining a tense coexistence with Turkish forces. Finally, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist faction with roots in al-Qaeda, governs much of Idlib province. HTS has evolved into a pragmatic force willing to negotiate with international actors, further complicating the conflict’s dynamics.

The Syrian opposition is currently fragmented into multiple factions, each defined by its distinct goals, alliances, and operational areas. Key players include the Syrian National Army (SNA), the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Islamist groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Here’s an overview of these factions and their dynamics:

Syrian National Army (SNA): Operating primarily in northern Syria, the SNA is backed by Turkey and serves as its main proxy force in the region. Originally formed in 2017 to combat ISIS and Kurdish YPG forces, the SNA includes various militias with diverging interests. Recently, Turkey has pushed to formalize the SNA under the civilian-led Syrian Interim Government (SIG) to strengthen its governance capabilities. Despite efforts, the SNA’s fragmented structure, marred by internal rivalries, hinders this transformation. The group also plays a role in Turkey’s regional operations beyond Syria, including Libya and Azerbaijan.

Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF): Dominated by the Kurdish YPG, the SDF controls large areas of northeastern Syria. It has been a key U.S. ally in the fight against ISIS, but tensions with Arab tribes in the region have grown. Recent clashes in Deir ez-Zor highlight the challenges of Kurdish domination over Arab-majority areas, exacerbated by poor economic conditions and governance grievances. While the U.S. continues to support the SDF, it faces mounting pressure to address tribal demands to prevent further instability.

Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): HTS remains the dominant faction in Idlib province, controlling the last major opposition stronghold. Evolving from its origins as an al-Qaeda affiliate, HTS has sought to rebrand as a more pragmatic force, engaging in governance and limiting overt extremist activities. Recent offensives against regime forces underscore its attempts to exploit a perceived reduction in Russian military support due to Moscow’s focus on Ukraine. HTS’s ambitions to expand territorial control continue to shape dynamics in northwest Syria.

Tribal and Local Movements: In areas like Deir ez-Zor and Sweida, local grievances over governance, economic hardships, and disenfranchisement have led to unrest. Arab tribes in the east challenge the SDF’s authority, while protests in the Druze-majority Sweida province highlight cracks in the Assad regime’s hold on the south. These localized movements could alter regional power balances if they gain broader support or external backing.

External Influence: The Syrian opposition’s fragmentation is compounded by the involvement of external powers like Turkey, the U.S., and Gulf states. Each faction’s survival and growth depend heavily on the support of these patrons, whose strategic interests often conflict, further destabilizing the opposition landscape.

Role of Russia in Syria

Russia plays a pivotal role in Syria, primarily as a staunch ally of President Bashar al-Assad’s government. Russian forces have provided critical air and logistical support, enabling the regime to reclaim significant territory since their intervention in 2015. Beyond direct military involvement, Russia exerts influence through diplomatic maneuvers, including hosting the Astana peace talks alongside Turkey and Iran. These efforts, however, have failed to yield a lasting resolution, as Russia’s veto power at the UN Security Council and backing of the Assad regime have perpetuated Syria’s humanitarian crisis. The deployment of private military contractors, such as the Wagner Group, underscores Moscow’s broader strategic interests in the region, including maintaining a Mediterranean foothold through its naval base in Tartus.

Recent Developments

Syria remains fragmented, with various actors vying for control. In the Turkish-occupied north, SNA factions face growing criticism for abuses against civilians, while Turkey continues its drone strikes on Kurdish positions, escalating regional tensions. In the northeast, the SDF’s conflict with Arab tribal forces in Deir ez-Zor highlights internal divisions within the U.S.-backed coalition. Meanwhile, the Assad regime continues to consolidate power in government-held areas but struggles with crippling economic challenges, including severe fuel shortages and widespread poverty, with over 90% of the population living below the poverty line.

Humanitarian Crisis and International Aid

The humanitarian situation is dire, with 15 million people reliant on aid. Russia’s veto of a UN resolution in mid-2023 complicated cross-border assistance, further straining rebel-held northwest Syria. Although a temporary agreement allowed limited aid deliveries, the impact of natural disasters, such as the devastating February 2023 earthquake, has exacerbated existing vulnerabilities.

Broader Implications

Syria’s conflict remains a battleground for proxy wars, with external powers like Turkey, Russia, and the United States pursuing competing agendas. Russia’s influence continues to bolster Assad’s regime, undermining peace efforts and prolonging civilian suffering. As the conflict evolves, addressing the intersecting challenges of governance, regional rivalries, and humanitarian needs will be essential for any long-term resolution.

Current Updates

In the past week, Syrian rebel factions have achieved significant territorial gains, marking their most substantial offensive in years. The rebel coalition, led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has launched a large-scale operation across northwestern Syria, particularly in Aleppo province. This campaign, termed “Deterrence of Aggression,” has resulted in the capture of approximately 50 towns and villages, representing a major setback for pro-Assad forces.

Rebel advances included breaching government defenses in Aleppo city, a critical stronghold. This success was attributed to coordinated attacks leveraging surprise tactics and heavy artillery. Reports suggest that these gains have forced significant retreats by Syrian government forces and have placed the opposition within striking distance of vital infrastructure and urban areas. However, these victories have drawn a sharp response from Assad’s forces and their Russian allies, with intensified airstrikes targeting rebel positions to stem their momentum​.

These developments have further exacerbated civilian displacement, with thousands fleeing the newly contested regions. The recent gains underscore the rebels’ ability to reassert control in key regions despite ongoing pressures from both Assad-aligned forces and external powers such as Russia.

Aleppo holds immense strategic importance due to its location as a key commercial and cultural hub in Syria. Historically, it has been a crossroads for trade between the Mediterranean and the Middle East. Control over Aleppo not only provides access to vital supply routes but also serves as a critical geopolitical asset in Syria’s broader conflict. With its industrial infrastructure, significant population, and proximity to other key regions, Aleppo remains central to both the Assad regime’s ambitions and the opposition’s efforts to disrupt government control.